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What Will Happen In 2009?

by Steve Smith

One of the top futurists, Dr Dixon was asked to take a look at the year ahead, and answer a few questions on what he thought would be in store for us! 1. UK economy?

"Well, these are exceptionally tough times. We are probably around half way through the current crisis - which has been going on already over 18 months. So we can expect a tough 2009 and things should start picking up in 2010. Companies that shed staff early and have conserved cash will do well in the upturn: having spare cash available to buy companies or assets at rock bottom prices. There has been a lot of fuss about the fall in the pound but this is really good news for any company that sells goods or services outside the UK, and will also mean that people spend more at home - whether on holidays or other things." 2. Housing Market! do we sell up or stay put? Should renting be a good option right now? Will housing become realistically affordable again?

"Each individual's circumstances are totally unique but here are some general thoughts. The market is likely to continue to drop sharply, but will eventually bottom out. The lower the falls are, and the lower mortgage interest rates go, the more likely it is that we will see a rebound and strong recovery, as many will decide to return to the market or to enter for the first time. Much has been said about mortgage markets changing forever, but that is very unlikely. The mortgage market will eventually settle down, and will become more attractive and competitive again. Once lenders become convinced that we are in the early stages of a long and strong property price recovery, the loan to value ratios become more relaxed, and the return of 90% mortgages. Homeowner loans are the largest and most important financial transaction most will do in their lifetimes apart from personal pensions, and so will become once again a very important part of retail financial services.

"Remember that the cost of buying or selling is high with legal fees, stamp duty and the rest. Rents have not fallen as quickly as house prices in many areas so renting is more expensive than you might think. Housing is much more affordable than for years - we have seen salary inflation of 3.5% or more over the last 2 -3 years, while property prices have fallen up to 15%. Put them both together and you have around 25% drop in costs - and that is before the mortgage rates started falling, by 30% in some cases. When you look at the whole picture it's most likely that in 6 months we will see some great bargains, with an actual cost of ownership each month of less than 50 percent of what it was just 18 months ago. First time buyers will still need a larger deposit than in the past. Remember that: most people own to live in a home and not for a 2-10 year investment. It is very important to take a long term view in all property decisions." 3. UK Job Market.. what kind of industries are most likely to make drastic job cuts? What are employment chances like right now if you lose your job?

"Retail jobs will be hit hard in January to June as the reality starts to hit home. McDonalds, Lidl and some others trading at the bottom of their markets will continue to do very well. The jobs market in many sectors is surprisingly strong with 850,000 vacancies that are officially known about in December 2008. In past downturns it has been unusual for well motivated and talented individuals to be out of work for more than a year." 4. The credit/borrowing markets! will we stop being reliant on cheap credit? Will we now think about saving more?

"These are just cycles. We are about to enter a cheap credit boom, with the lowest borrowing costs in history. The result in the medium term is most likely to be another overshoot, high inflation, high interest rates, eventually leading to another crash which could happen by 2015. As we have seen - swings can happen very fast from one end to the other."

To manage your finances over the coming months, regardless of age, those Britons concerned about their capacity to manage their money might want to consider applying for a cheap loan. By taking out such a loan, borrowers may find that they can merge various financial commitments into a single low-cost monthly repayment.

5. The world economy! what affect will the world economy has on us all? What about £ sterling and our travel/work abroad?

"The global economy will continue to lurch from event to event. All eyes will be watching the price of the dollar. Despite this massive US crisis the dollar has increased or retained value against many currencies, as billions of dollars of US investments in many other nations are brought back to service debts and other urgent commitments. Eventually the massive return flows will slow down. When that happens the big question is who will want to buy the dollar? Countries like China have bought over a trillion US dollars and are holding them for now. But what if they start to sell? They cannot sell too much or they will force a dollar crash and what is left of their assets will be worth a lot less. Although they could sell enough to force a gradual dollar decline"

Steve Smith writes for All About Loans. Visist us today to apply for cheap loans online, personal finance, and UK tenant loans.

Published January 22nd, 2009

Filed in Finance, Loans

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